The balance of power between the regime and the rebels has waxed and waned over the 27-month conflict. President Bashar Assad recapture of the town of Qusayr from the rebels on 5 June has ushered in a feeling the rebels have lost the initiative.
Rebels still control parts of north and east of the country and continue clashes in the west and major cities of Damascus, Homs and Hama. But Assad controls the cities centers.
The government is now reported to be moving troops to the jewel of the rebel crown – Aleppo.
The Kurdish leaders in the northeastern part of the country have successfully playing one side off against the other. Many fear that Assad will cut a deal with Kurdish leaders in the northeastern province of Hasaka, where the regime made a tactical withdrawal last year.
The Al Qaeda linked extremist rebels are not working ith the more moderate rebel groups and many feel the extremist may be the strongest party in the rebel movement and if they do win will turn Syria into a harsh Islamic state along the lines of Iran. Many Syrians have said they prefer Assad to the potential extremist form of government.
One year ago it seemed that Assad was losing power and would surely fall.
However, Shi’ite allies from Iran and Hezbollah have increased support to the Assad’s regime in the form of money, arms and fighters. Hezbollah has been training Syrian forces in urban warfare, which they are expert, and have helped build a 60,000 man force specializing in just urban warfare. It is reported that they plan a force of 100,000 to compensate for the regular army’s weaknesses.
The talk of the U.S. administration now proving arms to the rebels may be too little too late. The rebels say they need heavy weapons and a “no fly zone” to stop the daily bombing by the Syrian Air Force.
Syria is about 74% Sunni (power base of the rebels) and the power of Assad is based on the Ba’ath Party which is made up of Shi’ite population of 13%. It is easy to see why the majority of the army is Shia and all the senior leadership positions in the military are Shia and Ba’athist Party members.
The proposed conference in Geneva next month looks like it will not come together not just because the tide may have turned in favor of Assad but the rebels cannot settle on an agreed leadership and an agreed agenda for the meeting.
Over 90,000 people are officially reported to have been killed, the real number is unknown, and there are millions living in refugee camps in Turkey and Jordon.
Officials in Damascus reject any compromise with the rebels and will not here of any form of partition of the country.
Few Syrians see a better future under Islamic extremist and may side with Assad in the long run.
While Washington, D. C. fiddles Syria is burning.
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